The Wile E. Coyote Moment Hovering Over The Cliff

August 7, 2009 at 11:07 pm (Banking Crisis, War)

As readers of this blog know, I have maintained in previous posts such as this the position that all the bailouts, which were sold to the US under the guise of buying up bad mortgages and then immediately switched out to saving big banks, credit card companies, insurance companies, etc, will fail until the underlying problem of overpriced mortgages is addressed.  There will be no economic recovery until either peoples’ mortgages are reduced to reflect the worth of their house, or their housing values recover, because the mortgage is the single biggest expense/investment a family in this country makes.  No talk of recovery is meaningful absent this.

Lo and behold this article comes out.  Wow.  Half of US homes will be worth less than is owed on the mortgage by 2011.  If this prediction is accurate, that is when the bottom of this depression will occur.  Who will continue to faithfully pay their mortage year after year knowing all that money is going down the drain and they could be renting for half as much?  How will the banks, absent another series of taxpayer handouts, be able to pretend their mortgage “assets” are worth anything?

Despite all the news about the bottom possibly being in we have horrific facts like the fact income tax revenue is down by almost a fifth, the total bailouts could cost $23 trillion, Fanny Mae needs a (third?  fourth?) bailout to the tune of another $10 billion, and the market is saying California is seen as having a higher risk of default than Russia, which actually did default 11 years ago.

Green shoots!  Hahaha!

Today’s article of doom: The Iraq and Afghanistan wars, originally estimated at a cost of $50 billion, are hovering around the $3 trillion mark.

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Pipeline-istan

May 21, 2009 at 10:39 pm (American-Israeli Empire, Oil, War)

I highly recommend this article entitled “Pipeline-Istan: Everything You Need to Know About Oil, Gas, Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan and Obama.”  Nothing in it is particularly shocking or new to anyone who was skeptic of the war on terror and its purposes, but the common threads of several chapters of Eurasia over the last few years have been woven together well.  A nice supplemental editorial is here.

The subject must have been in the collective unconscious recently because another great article was floating around with the funny title of: “Kremlin says battle over energy resources may lead to wars.”  It should have been called “Kremlin says two plus two equals four” or, more accurately, “Kremlin says that two plus two has equaled four several times in the recent past and predicts it will equal four in the future.”

Speaking of wars and oil, isn’t it funny how half of the American population thought that Pepsi Obama would stop the war in Iraq, stop torturing, stop spying on Americans, and stop indefinite detention — in short, start following the Constitution?  That is funny, since if he was interested in following the Constitution, he’d be a Libertarian or a Constitutionalist and not a Pepsi Democrat.  When, oh when, will the voters reject the two-party system, which is really a one-party system?  Old Coke McCain thinks Pepsi Obama is doing a pretty good job.  Is this really Obama doing this and this or is it Bush?  I’m getting deja-vu.

Well, enough of that subject.  Politics is similar to Professional Wrestling in its authenticity.  Too bad its effects aren’t similarly ephemeral.  Instead, we get the terrorist-hunting boy and girl scouts.  Progress!

In other news (and if this is news to you, well… good luck, pal) Medicare is projected by the government’s overly-rosy expectations to run out by 2017.  I don’t particularly feel great about all the Medicare money that’s been taken from my paycheck over the years but I’m certain there is some kind of pill that will numb that gnawing sense of anger (hopefully my insurance will cover it once 2017 rolls around).

Today’s article of doom: The worst is yet to come.

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Predictions for 2009

January 8, 2009 at 9:47 pm (Banking Crisis, Big Brother, Housing, Inflation, War)

Hi everyone. First, I’d like to say I’m sorry I haven’t responded to those who have contacted me or left comments recently; I have been on an extended and much-needed vacation and haven’t been checking or updating recently. Thanks for your emails.

Usually my posts are filled with hyperlinked references, to give substance and credence to my opinions, so I don’t come off as someone who thinks he knows it all, and also to encourage independent research. Today, however, I am going to post my predictions for 2009 without any references whatsoever. This is 100% opinion, based upon what I’ve been reading and observing. 2009 will be the year of action and culmination.

1) Major inflation. Sticker shock on everything from food to gas will repeat last year’s spring and summer pattern. The new fad scare of deflation will drift away as the US can’t get anyone to continue financing its debt and the Fed finally resorts to massive inflation to close the massive budgetary gaps. China will slowly stop buying debt so the inflation will be steady rather than in spikes. The government statistics on inflation, like unemployment, will under-report it by two or three times. The price of oil, silver, and gold will shoot up as they did last year, and in approximately the same time frames.

2) Russia and Germany up. UK, US down. Though Russia is currently hurting from the low prices of oil, they still have a net surplus and savings; something the US hasn’t had for a long time (not to mention 1/8 of the world’s land mass and all the resources that go with it). Ukraine’s tiff with Russia over gas right now is likely to fracture Ukraine into two pieces, not harm Russia in the slightest. Russia might even gain territory. Germany is much more pragmatic and better-positioned to weather the storm, being one of the few rich nations that actually produces more than it consumes. Soon, Germany will de-facto control the EU and the euro like the US currently controls the UN. UK won’t shed the pound for the euro — not because the pound won’t fall, but because the rest of the EU won’t allow it. Riots and unrest in Germany and Russia won’t be nearly on the same scale as the US and the UK, as both are more homogenous societies and race relations will become a white-hot divisive issue during the new depression in multicultural societies. China will be a little bit of both. Riots by the have-nots, but no economic deterioration like the US and UK. China will mostly remain flat.

3) Israel regrets its Palestine invasion. Israel’s attack dog, the US, is very ill and won’t be able to cover for Israel quite as well as before. The Muslim world will converge on Israel politically and will be supported to an extent greater than ever before due to worldwide souring of opinion towards the policies of the nation of Israel. High risk of expanded war in the region, with players such as Syria, Lebanon, and even Pakistan. Israel will have minor losses comparatively but will lose public sympathy (its most valuable asset) forever. No nuclear weapons will come into play, however. Israel’s economic status sours considerably. Iran will not play a large part, counter to most peoples’ expectations.

4) Obama appears to be Bush with a different face. Same policies, same excuses, same results. Slight variation on the implementation. (Coke with the sweetness of Pepsi — it’s Coke II!) Different group of blind supporters, I suppose. Huge let-down for those with half a brain, no surprise for those with a complete brain. Expansion of military engagements in the Middle East, blind support of the Federal Reserve’s disastrous policies (rather, existence), more spying on citizens, increased police aggressiveness, bailouts, and spending money we don’t have. Big push to “regulate” and filter opinions on the internet based upon the excuses of fighting “hate speech and “extremism.” Congress will continue to be mostly ineffective except at endorsing the President’s policies.

5) Huge housing bailout. Likely to include a massive delay of foreclosures, mandatory interest rates, changes in bankruptcy laws, tax laws, etcetera. Probably won’t occur until around tax time. Will help keep people in their homes and prevent a larger wave of rioting but will not cause prices to suddenly start rising. Established homeowners’ complaints will fall on deaf ears. Credit card bailout also a strong possibility. Corporate bailouts of every imagined (and unimagined) stripe are also likely. Bailouts of cities and states will be frequent and certain.

6) Unrest followed by deployment of soldiers as “helping teams” (read police state) and all the bad press, riots, and anger that accompanies such. Increase in power of local gangs and hatred directed along racial lines. Economic division will not be seen along class lines as is more accurate, but along racial lines. 2009 will be the first year most people start to think about the US as several different regions, rather than a single nation. Possibility of bank “holidays,” government-assumed control of private retirement accounts, even a dollar default. Like the 30s, massive anger towards bankers, and wealthy people in general, and massive sympathy for any criminals who take on the establishment. Possible relaxation on the rules, or lax enforcement, of criminal marijuana laws. Marijuana becomes the new prohibition issue with its myriad motivations and repercussions. Huge increase on the regulation of firearms and acts of “terrorism.”

And there you have it. Stay tuned next time for my regularly-recurring article of doom.

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War on Iran Really Coming Soon?

June 6, 2008 at 5:29 pm (War)

This article from Iran, this article from Pakistan, this article from China, and this Lebanese article picked up the the LA Times all ran several days ago.  They spoke of an impending attack on Iran that seemed to be more than just speculation.  The US media hasn’t mentioned a thing (unless you count Rush Limbaugh’s claim of insider knowledge that an attack was imminent).

Let’s forget the fact that there are hugely differing opinions on Iran’s nuclear program.  Let’s also forget that Israel itself has nuclear weapons, and arguably acts towards its neighbors in a manner we accuse the worst people in Iran of acting.  Let’s forget that a minority of people in both the US and Israel support use of force against Iran.  Finally, let’s forget we’d be going to war based upon the same flimsy premises as we did on Iraq.  Forget the massive innocent civilian casualties that would result. There is one simple reason going to war against Iran is stupid.

We can’t afford it.

We can’t afford our other two wars.  We can’t afford our Medicare and Social Security commitments, even when their costs are reduced by our deceitful inflation calculations.  We can’t afford to take care of our own vets.  Our unemployment, even by our tweaked figures, is skyrocketing.  Housing prices are plummeting.  Food and fuel are skyrocketing.  We’re going broke.

Going to war against Iran would be more than bad policy; it would be the straw the broke the camel’s back.  Are these “leaders” completely insane?

Today’s article of doom: Oil at $139 per barrel.

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